Thursday, December 06, 2007

Holy Crow

It may be a "Joy To The World" Christmas, after all.

A National Intelligence Estimate has been released that tells us that Iran has not had an active military nuclear program since 2003.

Despite their own President's threats to bomb Israel. Despite our identifying the doorways to their vast underground nuclear weapon development complex as targets to be pummelled with large new bombs yet to be invented. Despite Mr. Bush's October warning that failure to interdict the Iranian menace could lead to World War III, words spoken when he knew better.

Must have been something else. They had nothing. Oops. Again.

Our misreading suggests that our intelligence services have not had sources on the ground in Iran, at least not enough of them to allow cross-checking the story of one against the story of another. Perhaps the CIA's having replaced democratically elected Mossadegh with the Shah so many years ago has led modern Iran to keep a sharp watch out for their presence.

Mr. Bush says that nothing has changed, Iran is still a threat. But getting the United Nations to agree on further sanctions against them, including the sanction of war, is unlikely now.

Our fear of Iran has been based on bad intelligence. Our invasion of Iraq was based on bad intelligence. Sorry, everybody. Our bad.

What this means to Vice President Cheney, whose staff has long fought for a war with Iran, is hard to say. Apparently the truth became inescapable.

This means the ultraconservative PNAC dream of leapfrogging from Iraq onward to Iran is ended. Staffers seem to be polishing their resumes as best they can, as they offload to thumb drives the emails that will incriminate their bosses. If needed.

The case of a prisoner who has been held at Guantanamo for more than six years without bail or trial is being heard by the Supreme Court today.

Perhaps they will see the writing on the wall and ask why he is held without process.

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